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Cake day: March 3rd, 2024

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  • I don’t think it plays out like the movies. It doesn’t have to. Just imagine all the issues we’ve seen with AI/LLMs hallucinating or just being bad at a job that corporate was convinced it would replace. We don’t need a rogue AI that decides humans are the problem, we just need too much human reliance on a wildcard that can really screw up because it’s not really AGI.

    Could be totally wrong though. I do think AGI self awareness would quickly lead to it realizing it needs to stay low and not let the humans know it knows. Which goes back to some movies that suggest AGI waits until it can ensure its survival, and then reveals itself (Lawnmower Man, Transcendence, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress).







  • I guess the silver lining is that we won’t spend the next few months worried about violent retaliation and a second insurrection. But we’ll have to live through the bickering and multiple finger pointings among non_MAGA people on whose fault it was. Then January 20th will come and we’ll be too busy worrying about our well being to continue the blaming.

    It really does parallel Brexit in a way. People are so similar.






  • Why didn’t they just make one Clear and make another Backspace? The concept of erasing the last character had been in typewriters for a while by then, and this is far more obvious. Maybe erasing a single digit in earlier software/hardware was much harder than just clearing it all?



  • An interesting read (admittedly I skimmed through a lot as the details are over my head). The takeaway I get is that even in an ideal situation like these simulations where we immediately go to a net zero world or even one of negative net, there will still be centuries of climate oscillations as it finds a new stability.

    Given that the goals are met at various year points and the continued progressions are overall straight, this seems to suggest to me that there’s a lot of the extra “noise” left out to keep the simulations simple enough to run. Things like triggered feedbacks for one. Perhaps laid onto these conclusions we can imagine arching curves from the net zero year points that find their high points much later and finally plateau or perhaps find a slow decrease over thousands of years timescale. Again, just a layperson’s take given other projections I’ve seen and the typical curves that seem to result from them.

    The short conclusion is that we need to cut emissions yesterday, and fast, and then prepare for a very rough ride for our posterity. Cessation, mitigation, and adaptation need to be primary concerns.