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Cake day: May 23rd, 2024

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  • There is no longer any cheap and abundant energy source available. Fossil extraction is trapped in the narrowing triangle of doom of being too cheap for producers and too expensive for consumers. Current renewable is a multiplier of fossil and is not cheap if you require storage for dispatchability. It is slowly getting cheaper, with the caveat of necessary mineral resource extraction. There is no energy transition in the sense that there is no substitution, only addition. Fossil extraction is about to start falling rapidly even in terms of volume (the actually relevant metric is net energy, especially per capita) since most of it is now tight resources. It easy to see where this is going.