No, it is not. 5% hurdle means Linke, FDP and the other small parties will not get seats. In some polls they have combined 16% of the vote. So the coalition does not need 50% of the vote, but a bit less then 45%.

Were do you get your polls. Current average would be easily enough for CDU and SPD or Greens. So a two party coalition, which would probably work rather well. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/

Currently polling would basicaly mean the center right CDU/CSU would be chancellor, with a coalition with either the social democrats or Greens. Both would be enough for some comfortable leads. The AFD could also be an option, but I highly doubt it.

deleted by creator

The article does not talk about the Budapest Memorandum at all. So have you read the article?

I see the argument with the Budapest Memorandum everywhere and it is just not true. If it were true, all parties would have broken it, when Russia took Crimea. That would make all the actual security guarantees, which have been given to Ukraine for the time after the war worthless, while questioning NATO and the EU as alliances, with two of the most powerful members not actually delivering the protection they promised. So I find it very relevant to point this out.

The company is called For of Europe and they have pretty much everything in Europe these days. For example the Ford Focus was developed in Europe. So it really is just the brand. Everything else is pretty much European.

Also nobody agreed to protect Ukraine for giving up nukes. This is the text:

1. Respect the signatory’s independence and sovereignty in the existing borders (in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act).

2. Refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of the signatories to the memorandum, and undertake that none of their weapons will ever be used against these countries, except in cases of self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3. Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine, the Republic of Belarus and Kazakhstan of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they “should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used”.

5. Not to use nuclear weapons against any non - nuclear-weapon state party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

I believe the war Russia is fighting against NATO has so far not killed a single NATO soldier, but thousands of Russians. If this is the war Russia wants to fight with NATO, NATO would be stupid not to keep it going. At this point the Soviet era weapon stockpiles are nearly empty, they need to buy shells from North Korea, the Russian economy is pretty much a full on war economy, which means collapse as soon as the war ends, while Russia debt auction run into serious problems and the sovereign wealth fund is running empty.

The only thing the West needs to do is to keep sending aid to Ukraine for another two years or so. That will kill Putin’s Russia. It might even happen earlier.

No! Ukraine had nukes until 1994 and when Ukraine gave them up in the Budapest Memorandum not a single one of the countries agreed to protect Ukraine. Unless by protection you mean calling the UN security council, which both the US and UK did.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum#The_Budapest_Memoranda

EDIT: Also the EU is not the US, UK or Russia.

Yes exactly. That’s bombing Israel’s regional enemies.

In other words you support the Houthis attacking ships in the Red Sea. Since you are against shooting down missiles launched to attack those ships.

And then they’ve been bombing Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria, among others, since forever. Now I don’t support Iran in general and believe they should get the fuck out of the Arab world, but America definitely supports Israel against its regional enemies.

We are talking about Spain, Norway, Ireland and Slovenia here and none of them have activly bombed in Syria or Iraq. Slovenia gave a bit of aid to the US, when they attacked ISIS.

I haven’t heard of the Houthis committing genocide so I’m not sure what you’re talking about.

I have not said they commit genocide, they just call for it and clearly have no problem with killing a lot of people.

None of them sell them weapons and they all are perfectly happy to fault them diplomaticly. Only the USA and Germany actually sell weapons to Israel these days. So it really is not the entire West doing it, but two countries and even then the US is really the big one.

None of them sell weapons to Israel. As for bombing enemies of Israel, Slovenia helped the US in bombing ISIS. There also are training missions against ISIS and in Mali against islamist groups, which Spain and Norway are involved in. Other then that peacekeeping in Lebanon and shooting down Huthi missiles in the Red Sea. None of those groups being fought, have a problem with committing genocide.

So it is pretty obvious who you support.

What are they supposed to do? Invade Israel?

I thought Poland has proportional representation. So why do left wing voters not just vote for a left wing party, which then forms a coalition with KO?

There also was a pretty large energy crisis in the EU, whereas the US profits from exporting oil and gas. Add to that Germany paying down debt in an economic crisis, which obviously slows down the rest of EU as well. Obviously falling population shrinks the economy as well and that is happening in half of the EUs most populous countries namely Italy, Poland, Romania, Czechia and Portugal. Spain is fairly likely to join them too with nearly no population growth. Clearly GDP per capita is the more important metric, but still.

The solution is clearly to transform the economy faster towards becoming green. That solves the energy problem and cuts useless imports of fossil fuels, which make up over 20% of EU imports.

Did Finland win? They attacked the Soviets and lost a land in it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuation_War

No worries, Putin has that covered. Thanks to a concerted effort a lot of apartments of single men should be freed up in Russia in the next months. Some of them might even have running water.

Making EU membership a goal in the Moldovan constitution.

It is so bad, it gets blaimed on problems it has nothing to do with. This is part of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution responsibilities.