That’s correct, it’s about probability based on past known history. An area could get unlucky and have repeat conditions sooner than normal. When many areas appear to be having this same bad luck, it’s time to reevaluate the probabilities. It’s also why regular weather forecasts haven’t seemed to get things as right as they used to…using the past percent chance probabilities in a changing environment doesn’t hit as well as it used to.
That’s correct, it’s about probability based on past known history. An area could get unlucky and have repeat conditions sooner than normal. When many areas appear to be having this same bad luck, it’s time to reevaluate the probabilities. It’s also why regular weather forecasts haven’t seemed to get things as right as they used to…using the past percent chance probabilities in a changing environment doesn’t hit as well as it used to.
Thanks for the input it never crossed my mind that weather (the thing that we can only predict) changes when the past data is no longer relevant