Turkiye tried joining the EU for decades. The Europeans would never accept them no matter how long it took or what Turkiye offered. Turks are too Muslim and too Asian for them; despite abolishing the caliphate, secularizing and adopting the Latin script.
Now though Turkiye can look southward and find prosperity without strings attached. None of the BRICS members share a culture or religion, a more diverse and global community where Turkiye can join as it is.
Turkiye is a regional power, it has a strong manufacturing base, and while a NATO member and dependent on the West they also have an advanced military industry and that was demonstrated during TAI TF Kaan maiden flight.
I recall there was an interview with the Belarusian ambassador last year where he mentions an interesting point. Belarus found that after they started refocusing their trade towards the east, their trade volume overall was lower, but their profit from trade went up. This is an indication that the west was basically ripping them off.
Would be nice if they also left NATO as part of joining BRICS.
I personally can’t see how NATO can last much longer after the Ukraine debacle.
They won’t stop because of shame. I don’t see why they would disband. The propaganda campaign has only made it easier for them to expand.
The problem they have is that they have nowhere to expand to, and from US perspective there is nothing more that can be achieved there going forward. The US simply doesn’t have the resources to take on Iran, China, and Russia all at the same time, so they’re going to have to pick their battles going forward. The US sees China as the primary adversary, and I expect that Asia will be where US focus will increasingly shift. This necessarily means having to cut Europe loose. The other side of this is what we’re seeing happening in France and Germany right now where liberal centre is collapsing. I fully expect that nationalist parties will take power within a few years, and these parties are hostile to NATO.
The US sees China as the primary adversary, and I expect that Asia will be where US focus will increasingly shift.
This has been the case for almost two decades now, yet they are stuck in the Middle East and cannot leave. The US is religiously tied to Israel, and is at a stage where the entire decisionmaker class genuinely believe that what’s good for Israel is good for the US.
Good for China, bad for the Middle East. But oh well, no one can choose their fate, we [Middle Easterners] certainly didn’t choose to be cursed with Israel.
Indeed, I imagine oil is also a big factor in that equation.
from US perspective there is nothing more that can be achieved there going forward.
There’s trillions yet to be funneled to the MIC. I don’t know why they’d stop just because they lost another war. The US losing wars is as normal as the sun rising.
I think there are physical limits on US power, and we’re seeing these limits being reached now. US is simply incapable of producing weapons and ammunition at the rate they’re being used in Ukraine. US has now run through much of the existing stocks, and it’s operating on very thin margins. I’m sure US will continue to try milk Europe, but NATO isn’t strictly necessary for that. Without NATO, Europe is still largely dependent on US, but there won’t be a commitment from US. You can think of it the same way NATO is using Ukraine right now, where they provide support, but won’t engage Russia directly on Ukraine’s behalf. Europe will find itself in the same position in the near future.
Sadly it will continue, especially in Europe, and they might also force their Asian client states to join.
I think it’ll hobble along for a few more years, but I don’t think there’s going to be any faith in the project going forward. If Trump gets elected, he’s almost certainly going to pull funding and force Europe to pay. That will in turn cause a bigger rift across the Atlantic. The liberal centre in France and Germany is already collapsing, and where they go the rest will follow.
Hope so.
Expanding might be difficult but I do not see Europe and America breaking military ties. Now that the hegemony is being challenged they are stepping up military investment.
I think if US pulls money that will be the end, and US has to pick its battles at this point. Stepping up military investment is also driving austerity in Europe which is leading to a backlash against NATO. Hence why we’re seeing nationalist parties gaining a lot of support. For example, RN in France and AfD in Germany are both openly hostile to NATO.
Most European far right parties have very direct ties with everyone’s favorite global influence. Far right parties are easy to control. Spending more on military and right winger-ism are perfect combinations.
This article goes in a little depth:
“Pro-Israel politicians from the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), including those who are under trial for using literal Nazi slogans, can freely speak on the Israeli war on Palestine under the guise of “fighting anti-Semitism”, but Ghassan Abu-Sittah, the Palestinian surgeon and rector of Glasgow University who worked in Gaza hospitals and documented war crimes during this latest Israeli assault on the Palestinian enclave cannot give his testimony to the German public.”
Being pro military and pro Israel doesn’t mean these parties will be pro NATO. What’s far more likely is that they’ll try to build some kind of European military around France and Germany.
